Trying Handicapping

Las Vegas is a huge sports betting town. Everyone does it. Everyone has a system. Everyone has a story about the one bounce of the ball that cost them big money.

I have tried betting on my own. I’ve tried out a couple of service here. I think everyone is just (somewhat educated) guessing. So I will try my guesses starting with this weekend’s NFL games:

Atlanta (-3) at Washington — Atlanta is playing outside and on grass a week after barely surviving a scare from Carolina. Washington would be a great pick in this game if it weren’t for two missing starters on defense and Atlanta’s potent offense. Atlanta wins, but the game might finish right on the number.

Philadelphia (+4) at Pittsburgh — Love Philly in this game, especially +4. The Eagles have a lot of offensive weapons and would love to whip their instate rivals.

Green Bay (-6.5) at Indianapolis — Green Bay is still searching for its dominance from last year. Having it defense terrorize a rookie QB in the Colts’ Andrew Luck will help. Green Bay wins by 10 points

Cleveland (+8) at NY Giants — Cleveland is reeling and the Giants will respond at home. Giants by at least 10.

Tennessee (+6) at Minnesota — The Vikings’ record is a product of a soft-schedule more than dominating play, with the exception of the 49ers game. Still, Tennessee with no Jake Locker in the Metrodome should be an easy Minny win and cover.

Miami (+3) at Cincinnati — Miami can put up the passing numbers. Take the Dolphins and the points.

Baltimore (-6) at Kansas City — The Chiefs are reeling. The fans want the GM, the head coach and the starting QB all fired. Arrowhead is no longer a tough place to play, as the Chiefs are just 3-9 there in the last 12 home games. The Ravens win big.

Seattle (+2) at Carolina — Carolina will build on last week’s close loss and bury a Seattle team that is a long ways from home.

Chicago (-6.5) at Jacksonville — The Jags are no match for the Bears stingy defense.

Denver (+6) at New England — Tom Brady is not going to lose to Peyton Manning at home regardless of the color of uniform Manning is wearing. After pounding Buffalo last week, expect the Patriots to easily cover in this game.

Buffalo (+10) at San Francisco — Buffalo is coming off a loss where their defense was shredded after being staked to a two-touchdown lead. Now they have to fly cross country to face one of the best teams in the NFL. I actually like the Bills to cover the 10 points in this game, but not win.

San Diego (+3.5) at New Orleans — The Saints are desperate and at home. San Diego might be coming off a nice road win in KC, but the Chargers are not going to do that two weeks in a row. The Saints cover the spread.

Houston (-8) at NY Jets — The Jets are broken. No Revis. No Holmes. Sanchez is struggling. Ryan can’t coach skinny. Houston with a 10-14 points beat down here.

Best Parlay — Philly, Baltimore, New Orleans, Houston

 

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